The numbers, from an industry forecast published mid-2025:
- Five-year average handover, 2020 to 2024: about 35,500 homes a year
- 2025: about 37,200 scheduled, about 22,900 expected to land, a 62% delivery rate
- 2026: about 71,600 scheduled, about 34,700 expected to land, a 48% delivery rate
- 2027: about 70,500, the highest single year in more than a decade
- Where it lands, 2025 to 2027: JVC about 16,900 units, Business Bay about 10,100, Azizi Venice about 7,900
Why this matters if you are buying for return.
Supply is the number that rents and resale prices answer to. When thousands of new keys land in one area in one year, a landlord there competes with a brand-new building next door on rent, and a seller competes with the developer's own unsold stock on price. That pressure is local. It hits JVC and Business Bay. It largely misses areas with little land left.
Two corrections to the headline. Dubai has handed over about half of what was scheduled in recent years, so a good part of 2027 will slip into 2028. And "supply" includes everything from studios to villas. What matters to you is the supply of units like yours, in your area, in your price band.
What we do with it. Before any recommendation, we look at what is scheduled for handover within walking distance of the building, and when. A good price today with 3,000 units landing next door in 18 months is not a good price.
Figures are a mid-2025 industry forecast.