New one-bedroom leases signed this year, median, against 2025
- Dubai Marina: AED 85,000, down 11%
- Business Bay: AED 87,000, down 8%
- Downtown: AED 110,000, down 8%
- Dubai Hills Estate: AED 90,000, down 5%
- Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC): AED 70,000, down 3%
Renewals in the same areas went the other way: up 8% in JVC, 5% in Business Bay, 4% in Dubai Hills and 1% in the Marina. Downtown is the exception, down 1%.
Why the two numbers split
Dubai's rent index limits how far a landlord can raise a renewal in one go, so renewals move slowly and trail the market. A new lease is priced fresh, against every empty unit nearby. When new leases fall while renewals rise, the market has already turned and renewals are still catching up with the past.
Our read
After four years of rises, rents in the central areas have stopped climbing. That is not a crisis: they are coming off a high base, and demand is healthy. But it changes the maths for a buyer. Work out your yield on today's new-lease number, not on the rent a seller's tenant happens to pay on renewal. We are wrong if the handovers due this winter fill faster than expected, which would firm new leases again.
Want the new-lease number for the building you like? We pull it for you.
Source: Dubai Land Department rent contract data, 2026 so far against 2025.